Russia believes that the wave of mass protests in Iran has already peaked and that the country’s leadership has largely succeeded in suppressing domestic resistance, according to a leading Russian expert on Iranian affairs. The protests, which erupted on December 28 due to worsening economic conditions, quickly spread to hundreds of cities and towns across the sanctions-hit nation of more than 90 million people.
According to Russian assessments, Iran’s security forces moved swiftly to contain the unrest, using strong measures to restore control. Moscow now views the situation as stabilised, with officials suggesting that Iran faces no immediate internal threat. This perception has shaped Russia’s cautious and restrained public response to the crisis.
Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has strongly criticised what it describes as unlawful pressure from Western countries, accusing unnamed external actors of attempting to destabilise the Islamic Republic. Russian officials claim that foreign-backed provocateurs exploited peaceful demonstrations and turned them into violent incidents, a narrative long used by the Kremlin when addressing uprisings in allied states.
Moscow has repeatedly warned against what it calls “colour revolution” tactics — a term it uses to describe popular movements allegedly orchestrated by Western governments to overthrow friendly regimes. Russian officials argue that such methods have been applied in several former Soviet states in the past and are now being directed at Iran.
The Russian foreign ministry has also rejected threats of intervention made by the United States, calling them unacceptable and dangerous. Officials believe that the decline in protest activity could lead to further stabilisation within Iran. Meanwhile, statements from Washington urging Iranians to challenge state institutions have been sharply criticised by Moscow.
Notably, Russian President Vladimir Putin has remained silent on the protests, reflecting Moscow’s strategy of avoiding direct involvement. Analysts suggest Russia is prioritising its long-term partnership with Tehran while avoiding actions that could damage its international standing or entangle it in another regional crisis.
